China’s upcoming centralized internet plan could split the internet into two. The proposal comes as the Ukraine conflict escalates the Russia vs EU battle for control of the internet. Europe and Russia’s real-time censorship battle has escalated the internet divide as tech companies are forced to pick a side in the conflict. Between this back-and-forth and China’s upcoming proposal, the world could be divided between two competitive internets by 2026.
“Sovereign right to regulate” — Later this week, Geneva will host an assembly to decide on internet standardization rules. China is largely expected to submit a new internet protocol (IP) that would change the internet architecture from a decentralized network into a more interconnected system ruled by a giant VPN. This would give governments the ability to decrypt and surveil communications or shut down traffic to select websites on any device connected to the network. Russia supports the move as signaled in a joint statement earlier this year. China’s plan is to optimize its new standardization system by 2025 and implement it completely by 2035.
Two internets? — If implemented, this new system would not be compatible with current IP and would require new infrastructure around the world. The last attempt to roll out new IP back in the early 2000s is yet to be completed, so even if the political battle is won, it would take years to implement fully. However, China’s internet architecture is already one of the most sophisticated censorship engines in the world, and the EU’s new crackdown on US tech firms will use regulation to control content. Both China and the EU now seek to influence other Asian and African countries to adopt their systems. Governments will have to decide which internet to implement as a “two-internet” world could begin by 2026.